Strong high pressure over the Northeast U.S. will bring breezy conditions across the state this afternoon as wind gusts of 15-20 mph developing across the state with stronger wind gusts of 25-30 mph across portions of South Florida and the Keys.
Mostly dry conditions can be expected throughout the daytime hours with spotty to isolated showers along the Florida East Coast and I-95 corridor with onshore winds (15-30% chance of rain).
A frontal system moving eastward across the Midwest and Deep South will bring a warm front northward along the western Panhandle later today allowing for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (25-50% chance of rain).
A cold front will then follow behind bringing additional scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the overnight hours as it moves eastward along the I-10 corridor (45-75% chance of rain).
Severe weather is not expected; however, a few stronger thunderstorms may develop or drift beyond the state line and bring locally gusty winds and heavy rains.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the far western Panhandle as moisture being pulled northward from the Gulf waters may bring locally heavy downpours that lead to instances of localized flooding.
High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s can be expected across North Florida, low to middle 80s across East Florida and middle to upper 80s across West Florida this afternoon.
A high risk for rip currents can be expected across Panhandle and East Coast beaches due as breezy onshore winds and dangerous ocean swells return.
King Tides will return over the next few days ahead of the approaching Full Moon later this week allowing for elevated tides to create instances of minor coastal flooding along portions of the East Coast through the Florida Keys.
Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for the tidal St. Johns River and the Northeast Florida coast, with Coastal Flood Statements along Southeast Florida and the Keys.
Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues along portions of the Withlacoochee River, while moderate flooding continues for the St. Johns River at Astor.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
Central and Western Caribbean Sea (Invest 99L): A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7days, at least, but will continue to be closely monitored.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…high…90%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.