Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Much needed rainfall will return across the state, especially across North Florida, as tropical moisture ahead of Hurricane Rafael pushes northward from the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
- Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms can be expected to develop statewide, with more widespread showers across North Florida and the Keys throughout the day (60-85% chance of rain).
- Scattered to numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms, can be expected to continue through the overnight hours across North Florida and the Keys, with isolated to widely scattered showers throughout the Peninsula (40-65% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across North Florida, as well as the lower half of the Keys, due to tropical downpours within shower and thunderstorm activity increasing the potential for localized flooding.
- While Hurricane Rafael will remain to the west of Florida, outer bands of the system will bring isolated tropical tornadoes or waterspouts moving onshore along the Florida Keys and the immediate Southwest Florida coast today and overnight.
- The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather across the Lower and Middle Keys, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extending along the Upper Keys and immediate Southwest Florida Coast.
- Easterly to southeasterly winds of 15-20 mph will develop from the I-4 corridor and southward to the Keys, with stronger winds of 25-35 mph possible along the Southeast Florida coast to the Keys.
- Breezy wind gusts of 10-15 mph can be expected to develop across North Florida this afternoon, with stronger wind gusts of 20-35 mph from the I-4 corridor through the Keys.
- Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect along the Lower and Middle Keys.
- High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to low 80s across North Florida and middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida.
- Portions of West-Central Florida could see temperatures approach or reach 90-degrees this afternoon.
- Dangerous beach and boating conditions will continue across all Panhandle and East Coast beaches, including Atlantic-facing Key beaches, due to large ocean swells, a high risk for rip currents and onshore winds.
- Minor coastal flooding will be possible near and during times of high tide along the tidal St. Johns River due to persistent onshore winds limiting discharge of elevated water levels, and the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect.
- Instances of minor coastal and saltwater flooding will be possible across the Florida Keys due to large ocean swells and breezy onshore winds from distant Hurricane Rafael.
- Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues for the Withlacoochee and St. Johns River, and the forecast point at Trilby is forecast to fall into minor flood stage today.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
- Hurricane Rafael: As of 7:00 AM EST, Hurricane Rafael is located about 90 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth, or about 245 miles south-southwest of Key West, Florida, and moving northwestward at 14 mph. A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or two, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move near or over the Isle of Youth later this morning or early this afternoon, and make landfall is western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Reports from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba, but it expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time; however, an increase in rain chances can be expected statewide today. Minor coastal flooding and gusty winds will extend along portions of the Florida Keys, as well as potential for isolated tropical tornadoes within far outer bands of the system. Tropical Storm Warnings continue for the Lower and Middle Keys.
- Southwestern Atlantic: An upper-level area of low pressure is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. This system is expected to move generally westward during the next few days, and an area of low pressure could form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday. Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible toward the end of the week and into the early part of the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and approaches the Southeast Bahamas. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days but will continue to be monitored. Regardless of development, an increase in rain chances can be anticipated across portions of South Florida late in the weekend or early next week.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days… low…30%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
