Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, November 10th, 2024.

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2

Meteorological Summary:

A staled frontal boundary just offshore from Northeast Florida is bringing isolated to widely scattered showers along portions of the Northeast and East-Central Florida coast.
High pressure over the eastern U.S. will continue to bring mostly dry conditions throughout most of the state, with isolated spotty showers possible (10-20% chance of rain).
The greatest chance for showers, or possible isolated thunderstorms, will be along the immediate Florida East Coast and Northeast Florida as onshore winds bring activity onshore from the coastal waters (20-55% chance of rain).
Breezy wind gusts of 10-15 mph will develop across the state, with stronger wind gusts of 20-25 mph possible across portions of East-Central and Southeast Florida.
Above normal high temperatures for this time of year can be expected to persist statewide as high temperatures will reach the 80s.
Drier conditions will return throughout the Big Bend and Peninsula, but areas across the western Panhandle and Southeast Florida will continue to see shower activity.

An upper-level feature moving over the far western Panhandle will give way to an increase in shower and possible thunderstorm activity overnight (20-35% chance of rain).
Moisture associated with a non-tropical upper-level area of low pressure will begin to move into Southeast Florida tonight, bringing a chance for additional showers (20-30% chance of rain).

Areas of patchy to locally dense fog may be develop overnight or early Monday morning throughout much of North Florida and extend along the lower Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor.
Dangerous ocean swells and onshore winds will continue to create a and onshore winds will continue to create a high risk for rip currents along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches, while a low risk returns to the West Coast.
Onshore winds and increased surf may lead to localized instances of beach erosion along the far western Panhandle beaches.
Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues for the Withlacoochee and St. Johns River basins as water levels slowly decline.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:

Tropical Storm Rafael: As of 4:00 AM EST, Rafael is located about 355 miles north-northwest or Progreso, Mexico and moving north-northwestward at 2 mph. The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-south-west on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days.
Near the Bahamas (Invest 98L): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have decrease in areal coverage since yesterday near an upper-level area of low pressure located less than a couple hundred miles east of the central Bahamas. Development is becoming less likely as the system is forecast to reach more unfavorable conditions later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible as the system moves generally westward across the Bahamas through tonight. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is outlooking a low (10%) chance of development through the next 48 hours and next 7 days. Regardless of development, an increase in rain chances can be anticipated across portions of the Peninsula late this weekend into early next week.