Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- An area of high pressure over the western Atlantic building westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and along the northern Gulf Coast will steer Hurricane Rafael further westward into the Gulf of Mexico today, gradually dragging its tropical tail of moisture away from Florida with it.
- Bands of showers and thunderstorms continue along the Florida Keys this morning; however, conditions will gradually improve throughout the day as Rafael moves away from the area (40-60% chance of rain).
- Onshore flow and lingering moisture along the East Coast will prompt isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to develop along the coastline and push inland across the Peninsula throughout the day (10-35% chance of rain).
- An unseasonably moist airmass will give way to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms along the Florida Panhandle and into the Suwannee Valley (25-55% chance of rain).
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Eastern Panhandle and across the Big Bend towards the I-75 corridor today as this very moist airmass may allow for locally heavy downpours at times over already saturated grounds.
- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Madison and inland Jefferson Counties.
- Breezy winds upwards of 10-15 mph persist along the Peninsula and Keys with gusts reaching upwards of 15-25 mph.
- High temperatures in the middle to upper 80s across the state.
- High risk for rip currents statewide as ocean swells and hazardous beach and boating conditions persist.
- Minor coastal flooding persists near and at times of high tide along the Florida Keys.
- Minor to moderate flooding continues along portions of the Withlacoochee and St. Johns Rivers.
- The loss of daytime heating and decreasing tropical moisture will allow mostly dry conditions to return along the Peninsula overnight with isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms lingering along the Florida Panhandle, Suwannee Valley, and Keys through the overnight hours (15-45% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across North Florida, low to middle 70s through Central and South Florida, and middle to upper 70s along the Keys.
- Areas of patchy to locally dense fog will be possible overnight into the early morning hours Friday across portions of North and Central Florida.
- As of 7 AM EST, Hurricane Rafael is located about 195 miles west of Key West, Florida, and moving northwestward at 9 mph. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph, making Rafael a Category 2 hurricane. Some weakening is anticipated during the next few days.
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