Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Tropical moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean will begin to surge northward increasing the potential for isolated to widely scattered showers south of the I-4 corridor.
- The greatest chance for elevated rain will be across South Florida and the Keys as tropical moisture will arrive there first, then move northward (45-70% chance of rain).
- High pressure over the Northeast U.S. will begin to move offshore towards the Atlantic waters but will still bring drier conditions along the Big Bend and Northeast Florida, as well as limiting widespread shower activity and thunderstorm development.
- Breezy easterly to southeasterly winds of 15-20 mph can be expected to develop across the I-4 corridor and southward throughout the Peninsula, with stronger winds of 20-25 mph across the South Florida coastlines and Keys.
- Wind gusts of 15-20 mph can be anticipated to develop statewide by the mid-afternoon hours with stronger wind gusts of 20-30 mph from the I-4 corridor and southward through the Keys.
- Wind Advisories have been issued for coastal portions of Southeast Florida as winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph can be expected through early Wednesday morning.
- Above normal high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s can be expected to develop statewide this afternoon.
- As Rafael continues to approach the central Caribbean Sea, tropical moisture will continue to surge northward allowing for a greater chance for isolated to widely scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, to develop and move northward overnight (20-60% chance of rain).
- Dangerous beach and boating conditions can be expected along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches due to onshore winds and long-period ocean swells, and a high risk for rip currents can be expected.
- Persistent onshore winds and elevated surf will create instances of minor coastal flooding near and during times of high tide along tidal portions of the St. Johns River and the Northeast Florida coast, and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued.
- Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues along the Withlacoochee and St. Johns River basins as water levels very slowly decline or remain steady.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
- Tropical Storm Rafael: As of 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Storm Rafael is located about 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica or about 542 miles southwest of Key West, Florida and moving northwestward at 13 mph. A generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica this morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, and be near or over western Cuba. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast over the next 24-36 hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it make landfall in Cuba. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time; however, an increase in rain chances, surf and breezy conditions can be expected to develop across the Keys and extend northward along the West Coast by mid to late week regardless of development of this system. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Lower and Middle Keys.
- Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days. Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days but will continue to be monitored.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%. *Formation chance through 7 days… low…20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.