Coastal Change Hazards Team Forecasted and Measured Hurricane Helene Beach Impacts

Prior to landfall on the Florida coast on September 26, 2024, the Coastal Change Hazards Team predicted that 63 percent of beaches from Horn Island, MS to Marco Island, FL were very likely to erode at the dunes’ base, 50 percent of dunes were very likely to be overwashed by storm waves, and 32 percent of dunes were expected to be very likely to be inundated (completely submerged) by surge, tide, and waves given worst-case scenario surge and timing of the storm. In addition to special forecasts focused on impacts at the peak of the storm, real-time forecasts were being updated in the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer. In coordination with the USGS Florida-Caribbean Water Science Center, sensors were installed along the coast from Venice to Panama City Beach to measure the storm-induced water levels and waves. After landfall of a storm, the Coastal Change Hazards team uses NOAA imagery, USGS CoastCams, other beach cams, Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) constructed from post-storm aerial imagery and lidar data, and observations from USGS sensors to validate the predictions. The USGS Coastal Change Forecast model is used to estimate the impacts of elevated waves and storm surge along the coast due to extreme storms. This model has been in use since 2011 and is continually updated and improved.

See the Flood Event Viewer for Hurricane Helene.