The dominate high pressure over the Northeast U.S. will continue to bring mostly dry conditions across the state throughout the day as it slides eastward ahead of a strong frontal system over the Central U.S.
An uptick in moisture associated with the approaching frontal boundary may allow for sparse showers along portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon; however, the frontal boundary will dissipate before it reaching the Southeast U.S. (10-15% chance of rain).
If any of these showers develop, they will remain light and brief in nature and keep rainfall totals very minimal.
Locally sensitive wildfire conditions will remain possible across the Panhandle this afternoon with ongoing dry conditions and lack of rainfall.
Breezy northeasterly to easterly winds of 15-20 mph will develop throughout the day across the Peninsula with wind gusts of 15-25 mph and stronger wind gusts of 25-35 mph possible across Southeast Florida and the immediate coast.
Onshore winds may bring isolated showers, and possible a thunderstorm or two, onshore along the Florida East Coast and towards the I-95 corridor mostly along the Southeast Metro (10-30% chance of rain).
Seasonable to above normal temperatures can be expected statewide with high temperatures reaching the 80s.
Please keep in mind heat safety when out in the field by taking breaks from direct sunlight and drinking plenty of water.
Mostly dry conditions can be expected overnight with a few lingering showers attempting to drift onshore along the East Coast and possible patchy fog across the Panhandle and Big Bend (10-15% chance of rain).
Breezy onshore winds and developing ocean swells of 5-9′ along the Florida East Coast will create a high risk for rip currents along all beaches. Nearly all Panhandle beaches can expect a high risk for rip currents as well with easterly winds and ocean swells of 2-5′.
King Tides have returned with the upcoming New Moon, and when combined with persistent onshore winds will bring instances of minor coastal flooding for tidal portions of the St. Johns River basin.
Moderate tomajor flooding continues for the Withlacoochee, and the forecast point at Holder should reach major flood stage later today or tomorrow as the crest wave moves through.
The St. Johns River remains within minor to moderate flood stage as water levels very slowly decline or remain near stagnant.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system begins to drifts generally northward over the central or western Caribbean Sea. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days at least but will continue to be closely monitored.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.