SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over south-central Lower MI, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through central IN and far southern IL, and continuing through the MO Boot Heel and eastern AR into south TX. Showers have been confined to the post-frontal regime over IL thus far, but general expectation is for precipitation to increase ahead of the front, beginning during the late afternoon across the Mid-South vicinity before expanding into the Lower MS and TN Valleys this evening/tonight, and into more of the Southeast states early tomorrow morning. A few stronger storms are still possible from the central KY/middle TN vicinity into more of eastern KY and adjacent parts of OH/WV (and maybe even western PA), where the best overlap between buoyancy, vertical shear, and large-scale forcing for ascent will exist. Buoyancy is still forecast to remain modest, limiting overall updraft strength and keeping the severe threat too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 11/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024/ ...Upper OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong and progressive shortwave trough moving across the central/northern Plains. As this feature tracks eastward, the associated surface cold front will advance across the upper OH and TN Valleys. Most 12z CAM solutions suggest a corridor of slightly greater thunderstorm potential - mainly after dark - along the front from eastern KY into adjacent parts of OH/WV and eventually southwest PA. Strong winds aloft and a rather focused low-level jet feature may aid in the development of gusty winds in sustained showers or thunderstorms in this region. However, very minimal CAPE suggests the risk of severe storms is rather low.