SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... Uncertainty regarding synoptic evolution on D2/Wednesday continues into D3/Thanksgiving Day. In general, a low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclone are forecast to move east-northeastward from the TN Valley/southern Appalachians vicinity toward the Mid Atlantic and eventually offshore, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Southeast. The slower guidance (notably the GFS/GEFS and NAM) depicts a later frontal passage across the Southeast, with some potential for secondary frontal wave development during the day. ...Parts of the Southeast... One or more thunderstorm clusters may be ongoing Thursday morning along/ahead of the cold front. The intensity and organization of early-day convection remains quite uncertain, but a low-probability severe threat cannot be ruled out during the morning within the favorably sheared environment. Depending on the timing of the front, some diurnal destabilization will be possible. While some weakening of low-level flow and large-scale ascent may occur with time, deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection, and strong to locally severe storms will remain possible along/ahead of the front into the afternoon. Gusty/damaging winds and isolated hail could accompany the strongest storms. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, depending on the evolution of low-level flow/shear and convective mode with time. Due to lingering model spread regarding frontal timing, a broad Marginal Risk has been included for parts of the Southeast. A corridor of greater probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on the resolution of ongoing model differences. ..Dean.. 11/26/2024