SPC MD 2243

MD 2243 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK…SOUTHERN VERMONT…NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE

Mesoscale Discussion 2243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0947 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024

Areas affected...parts of east central New York...southern
Vermont...New Hampshire and southwestern Maine

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 281547Z - 281845Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour
appear probable in a corridor from the vicinity of the Capital
District of New York through the southern Green into White Mountains
of Vermont and New Hampshire, into areas north of Portland ME
through 1-3 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Rapid (2-4 mb 2-hourly) surface pressure falls are
ongoing across the northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity through
southern New England, where substantive surface cyclogenesis is
forecast to proceed beneath strengthening divergent flow between
coupling upper jet streaks.  Downstream of a mid-level short wave
trough pivoting into the northern Mid Atlantic region, models
indicate strengthening upward vertical motion becoming maximized
within a saturating layer near/just above 600 mb, where temperatures
around -15C are conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.

Thermodynamic profiles across the lower Hudson/Champlain Valley
vicinity into New England are still largely sub-freezing, aside from
a slowly deepening near-surface layer slowly advecting across the
lower Hudson Valley into southern New England.  It appears that the
near-surface environment will remain cold enough in a corridor
(roughly) near/northeast of the Capital District of New York through
the Portland ME to support heavy accumulating snow, which various
model output indicates probably will include rates on the order of
1-2 inches per hour.

..Kerr.. 11/28/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   42997395 43617318 44677165 45307005 44796886 44067030
            43067223 42667321 42997395 

Read more