SPC Nov 28, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into
early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and
northern Alabama, parts of northern Georgia, and the western/central
Florida Panhandle.

...01 Update...
An upper-level trough currently in the central/southern Plains will
continue to progress eastward this evening into Thursday morning. A
surface low now in the Mid-South will also deepen this
evening/overnight. Moisture return is expected ahead of this surface
low and low-level southerly winds increase ahead of a cold front.
While the strongest mid-level ascent should remain in the
Tennessee/Ohio Valley regions, some modest ascent, coupled with
low-level moistening, should promote near-surface to surface based
destabilization across parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.
Observed soundings from the region this evening showed steep
mid-level lapse rates along with a dry pocket of mid-level air that
becomes more pronounced with eastward extent. Confidence in isolated
to widely scattered storms is greatest in Mississippi/Alabama, but
slightly greater mid-level ascent and anticipated low-level
moistening also suggests some risk may extend into northwest
Georgia. Isolated damaging winds are likely the primary hazard.
Despite veered low-level flow ahead of the front, strong 850 mb
winds will lead to sufficient hodograph curvature to support a
isolated tornado risk for the strongest surface-based storms. A
secondary risk area in the Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia
will be driven by low-level theta-e advection with similar hazards
expected.

..Wendt.. 11/28/2024

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