SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast States... Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern Appalachians. The associated cold front currently extends from VA into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle. Thunderstorms along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor thermodynamic parameters. This trend will likely continue today, with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth for lightning. Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a thunderstorm can sustain. The corridor that appears to have the greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be maximized. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/28/2024