SPC Nov 28, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today
across parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast States...
Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a
progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern
Appalachians.  The associated cold front currently extends from VA
into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle.  Thunderstorms
along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due
to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor
thermodynamic parameters.  This trend will likely continue today,
with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth
for lightning.

Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal
zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for
a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a
thunderstorm can sustain.  The corridor that appears to have the
greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA
into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be
maximized.

..Hart/Thornton.. 11/28/2024

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