SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail across all but the West Coast States today, with the axis of the primary trough to shift eastward across the eastern third of the country through the period. At the surface, a cold front trailing southward across the western Atlantic from a low initially over the Canadian Maritimes, will move gradually southward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. The front should clear southern portions of the Peninsula and the Keys by around midnight. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the U.S. in the wake of the frontal passage. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across parts of Florida, near and to the cool side of the front. Modest CAPE, weak low-level flow, and the slightly elevated nature of most of the convection should preclude severe weather potential. A flash or two of lightning may also occur in lee/east of the Lower Great Lakes, as cold air aloft overspreads the relatively warm lake water resulting in low-topped convective snow bands. However, coverage of any lightning should remain quite sparse -- insufficient to warrant introduction of a thunder area. ..Goss/Karstens.. 11/29/2024