SPC Nov 29, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast (outlined below) remains on track.
Thunderstorm potential continues to wane along the central FL
Peninsula amid post-frontal low-level cooling; however, latest CAM
guidance continues to suggest that a storm or two may develop
between 20-00 UTC (though recent trends suggest this potential is
low). Along the shores of the lower Great Lakes, Lightningcast
guidance continues to show intermittent low (10-25%) probabilities
for lightning flashes, so opted to maintain the thunder areas.

..Moore.. 11/29/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024/

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the eastern U.S.
today. Surface high pressure over the southern Plains/Southeast and
offshore low-level flow trajectories over the Gulf and western
Atlantic are expected to generally limit thunderstorm potential
across the CONUS through the period, with a couple of exceptions.

A front will continue southward over the FL Peninsula, with limited
low-level convergence due to weak/veered boundary-layer flow. While
isolated convection may occur today along/near the front, this
activity should generally remain elevated. A strong inversion noted
between 670-630 mb on the 12Z TBW sounding should also limit updraft
intensities.

Finally, low-topped convection occurring with snow bands in the lee
of the Lower Great Lakes may reach sufficient depth to support
charge separation and occasional lightning flashes.

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