SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion including South Texas... A persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging upper trough over the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. A continued prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable continental trajectories will considerably limit and spatially confine thunderstorm potential. Across Deep South Texas, weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal boundary, further influenced by strengthening southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late today and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion tonight. Modest surface-based destabilization may develop inland along the immediate coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak, and thus severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/03/2024