SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper high will remain situated over the Pacific Northwest, with a large-scale upper trough from Northern Plains/Great Lakes to the East Coast. A low-latitude wave will move across the Gulf of CA, with modest midlevel flow around 40 kt nosing into southwestern TX by 12Z Wed. While high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the CONUS, a plume of 60s F dewpoints over the western Gulf of Mexico will extend farther inland tonight across the middle TX Coast. Increasing southerly winds just off the surface will result in weak levels of warm/moist advection over TX, in response to the aforementioned southern-stream wave. Indications are that elevated instability will develop over central TX, with over 500 J/kg MUCAPE. While ascent will be weak, little elevated CIN may yield a few showers and thunderstorms. ..Jewell.. 12/04/2024