SPC Dec 4, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the
lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Discussion...
An upper high will remain situated over the Pacific Northwest, with
a large-scale upper trough from Northern Plains/Great Lakes to the
East Coast. A low-latitude wave will move across the Gulf of CA,
with modest midlevel flow around 40 kt nosing into southwestern TX
by 12Z Wed.

While high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the
CONUS, a plume of 60s F dewpoints over the western Gulf of Mexico
will extend farther inland tonight across the middle TX Coast.
Increasing southerly winds just off the surface will result in weak
levels of warm/moist advection over TX, in response to the
aforementioned southern-stream wave. 

Indications are that elevated instability will develop over central
TX, with over 500 J/kg MUCAPE. While ascent will be weak, little
elevated CIN may yield a few showers and thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 12/04/2024

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