SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...East/Southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana... Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed through the early morning hours across east-central/parts of North Texas, with persistent convection also off the coast of South Texas near a weak surface wave, and into the maritime warm sector where a narrow zone of near 70F/lower 70s F dewpoints reside. Some northward inland advancement of the Texas coastal front is expected today with a related increase in low-level moisture. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain weak due to semi-persistent multi-layer cloud cover and muted heating. While low-level SRH is currently weak per 12z observed soundings and regional WSR-88D VWP data, it is expected to increase within the zone of warm advection, particularly near the inland-advancing frontal boundary, coincident with modest surface-based destabilization this afternoon along the middle/upper Texas coast, and eventually southwest Louisiana this evening. While a few weakly rotating storms could occur offshore, current thinking is that the supercell and related tornado/wind potential will remain limited inland, largely due to the poor low-level lapse rates and weak parcel accelerations. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/04/2024