SPC Dec 4, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the
ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.

...East/Southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana...
Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed through the
early morning hours across east-central/parts of North Texas, with
persistent convection also off the coast of South Texas near a weak
surface wave, and into the maritime warm sector where a narrow zone
of near 70F/lower 70s F dewpoints reside. Some northward inland
advancement of the Texas coastal front is expected today with a
related increase in low-level moisture. However, low-level lapse
rates are expected to remain weak due to semi-persistent multi-layer
cloud cover and muted heating. 

While low-level SRH is currently weak per 12z observed soundings and
regional WSR-88D VWP data, it is expected to increase within the
zone of warm advection, particularly near the inland-advancing
frontal boundary, coincident with modest surface-based
destabilization this afternoon along the middle/upper Texas coast,
and eventually southwest Louisiana this evening. While a few weakly
rotating storms could occur offshore, current thinking is that the
supercell and related tornado/wind potential will remain limited
inland, largely due to the poor low-level lapse rates and weak
parcel accelerations.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/04/2024

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