SPC Dec 4, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the
central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...

A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS on
Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest
will deepen and modestly progress eastward, bringing enhanced
southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies vicinity.

At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southern AL
southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico/far south TX. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible in a warm advection regime
in the vicinity of the front, mainly across southeast LA and near
the central Gulf coast. As the front shifts east/southeast through
the day, convection will largely move offshore by afternoon. Modest
instability and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will preclude
severe potential.

A couple of lightning flashes are possible during the last 2-4 hours
of the forecast period across southern NM and far west TX.
Increasing large-scale ascent will impinge on the area as the
Southwest shortwave trough approaches the region early Friday
morning. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and cooling temperatures
aloft will support very minor MUCAPE (generally less than 150-200
J/kg). Midlevel moistening will occur in tandem, and a couple of
lightning flashes are possible with elevated convection.

..Leitman.. 12/04/2024

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