SPC Dec 5, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward
today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary
speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over
Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over
the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the
southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity.

Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated thunderstorms
may still occur early today, but the overall convective potential is
expected to dwindle as a cold front continues south-southeastward
into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, isolated lightning
flashes could occur tonight with a potential increase in elevated
convection across far West Texas/far southern New Mexico in advance
of an upper low over northwest Mexico, and possibly near the Deep
South Texas coast. Severe storms are unlikely in each of these
scenarios as overall buoyancy will be limited.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/05/2024

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