SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a weakening trend. At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over the Great Basin. In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops. Weak instability will not support any severe threat. ..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024