SPC Dec 6, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico
to central Texas today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The large-scale pattern will begin to change today, with the deep
upper trough over the northeastern CONUS lifting into eastern CA
through the period. This will result in warming aloft over much of
the MS/OH Valleys, Midwest and Great Lakes.

To the west, a mean ridge will remain over the Pacific Coast, with a
slow-moving upper low over northern MX and southern AZ/NM. This
feature will be embedded within a positive-tilt trough, with a
weakening trend.

At the surface, high pressure over the mid to lower MS Valley will
move into the southeastern CONUS, with northeast surface winds
maintaining a stable surface air mass. Another high will reside over
the Great Basin.

In advance of the low over AZ/NM/MX, southerly winds of 15-25 kt
will develop over the southern Plains tonight, with modest levels of
theta-e advection. Given cool temperatures aloft, this will be
enough to support increasing rain and thunderstorm chances, as
elevated buoyancy of a few hundred J/kg develops.  Weak instability
will not support any severe threat.

..Jewell/Moore.. 12/06/2024

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