SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS. Farther south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late. Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist across the southern Plains vicinity. Within this area of warm advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through the period. Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected -- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas. Given weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024