SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still possible from southeast Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for severe thunderstorms remains very low. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly eject into the Southern Plains and impinge on the TN Valley while preceding a larger upper trough that is poised to overspread the central and northern CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). The approach of the Southern Plains mid-level trough will encourage broad low-level warm-air/moisture advection across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley regions. Latest guidance consensus continues to depict a warm-sector characterized by scant buoyancy, with widespread rainfall and embedded elevated thunderstorms expected to overspread the Lower MS and TN Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. High-resolution guidance consensus hints at the possibility of 100-500 J/kg SBCAPE over southern LA by afternoon peak heating, amid curved and elongated hodographs. While a rotating storm or perhaps brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the lack of confidence in developing surface-based buoyancy precludes severe probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024