SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024