SPC Dec 7, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability
for severe thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS,
encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of
the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching
mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the
Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear,
depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast
soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be
poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg,
constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to
appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this
outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate
synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe
probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater
buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent.

..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024

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