SPC Dec 8, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe
thunderstorms appears low.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough covering much of the CONUS is forecast to
amplify further on Monday, as multiple shortwaves move through the
large-scale trough. One shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly
from the OH/TN Valley region toward the Mid Atlantic during the day,
as a trailing low-amplitude shortwave trough moves from Texas into
the Southeast. Farther north and west, a strong shortwave trough
will move across the Great Lakes region, while another shortwave
will dig southeastward from the Great Basin into the
Southwest/southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak cyclone is
forecast to move eastward from north TX toward the ArkLaMiss region,
as a trailing cold front approaches the TX Gulf Coast vicinity. 

...Lower MS Valley/Southeast/Mid-South...
Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will
continue to gradually spread northward across parts of the Southeast
on Monday, in advance of the approaching cold front and weak surface
low. Some weak convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning near
the central Gulf Coast vicinity within a zone of low-level
warm/moist advection. This convection may persist through the day,
though some weakening and veering of low-level flow is expected as
the lead midlevel shortwave trough moves quickly away from the
region toward the Mid Atlantic. Late in the period, as midlevel
height falls associated with the amplifying large-scale trough
overspread the region, convection may redevelop near the Gulf Coast
vicinity, and also farther north toward the Mid-South. 

Deep-layer flow/shear will be conditionally favorable for organized
convection through the forecast period, but weak low/midlevel lapse
rates are expected to limit instability with both early-day
convection and also with any development later Monday night. The
weak instability is expected to limit the organized-severe threat,
but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, and probabilities may
need to be considered if trends support stronger
heating/destabilization than currently forecast.

..Dean.. 12/08/2024

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