Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Saskatchewan/western Ontario southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying. Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day. At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern PA southwestward through northern FL early Wednesday morning. This front is expected to move quickly eastward throughout the day, moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the late afternoon. Mid 60s dewpoints are forecast to be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the cold front, and there could be a narrow window for a few surface-based storms Wednesday morning across coastal NC and the Outer Banks. Given the strength of the kinematic fields, even near-surface-based storms could produce strong enough downdrafts to penetrate any low-level stability that remains in place. However, buoyancy is expected to remain low, suggesting that updrafts will remain brief and shallow, limiting their potential to produce strong downdrafts. This limited buoyancy coupled with uncertainty regarding frontal position merits precluding any severe probabilities in this outlook. This region will be reassessed closely in future outlooks, and low severe probabilities may be needed if buoyancy trends higher. ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024
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