Official

SPC Dec 9, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to
severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

...LA/MS...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moving across central TX.  This feature will track into the lower MS
valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds
have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). 
A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS
overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary
along the southern edge.  Morning model guidance suggests that
precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest
destabilization and northward return of the boundary.  Forecast
soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some
potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early
evening.  Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing
structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/09/2024

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