SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic into the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS, a surface low will deepen as it moves north along the spine of the Appalachians and tropospheric flow will strengthen across much of the East Coast. As the surface low deepens, a cold front will sharpen and move quickly east through the period and move into the Atlantic by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. ...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England... As the surface low deepens and the cold front sharpens, expect a strongly forced convective line to develop during the morning near the Appalachian Mountains and strengthen as it moves east by late morning to early afternoon. Low 60s dewpoints ahead of this front will lead to marginal instability 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the line. However, despite the weak instability, this line may have some threat for damaging wind gusts given the strength of the kinematic field. A 130 knot mid-level jet streak and a 75 knot low-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the late morning to early afternoon which will provide a large reservoir of high momentum air which may mix to the surface within the strongly forced line. A marginal risk has been added to address this threat. Some low-level stability is possible along the immediate coast due to the cold shelfwaters. However, given the strength of the flow and how strongly forced the line will likely be, some damaging wind threat could still exist into areas with this marine influence. ..Bentley.. 12/09/2024