SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could produce damaging winds or a tornado. ..Wendt.. 12/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving across central TX. This feature will track into the lower MS valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary along the southern edge. Morning model guidance suggests that precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest destabilization and northward return of the boundary. Forecast soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early evening. Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust.