SPC Dec 9, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States today and tonight. Isolated strong to
severe storms may affect parts of southern Louisiana and
Mississippi.

...20Z Update...
No changes to the ongoing forecast. Prior forecast reasoning remains
valid as some destabilization has occurred in parts of southern
Louisiana into southern Mississippi. The strongest storms could
produce damaging winds or a tornado.

..Wendt.. 12/09/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024/

...LA/MS...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moving across central TX.  This feature will track into the lower MS
valley this afternoon, where persistent southerly low-level winds
have established a moist air mass (dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s). 
A large shield of precipitation has affected parts of southern LA/MS
overnight and this morning, with a well-defined rain-cooled boundary
along the southern edge.  Morning model guidance suggests that
precip will weaken this afternoon with some potential for modest
destabilization and northward return of the boundary.  Forecast
soundings and CAM solutions suggest this corridor could have some
potential for a strong storm or two later this afternoon and early
evening.  Vertical shear is strong enough to support rotating/bowing
structures with an attendant risk of a tornado or severe wind gust.

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