SPC MD 2254

MD 2254 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 2254
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092023Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A isolated damaging gust or tornado cannot be ruled out
this afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should remain
sparse and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually been intensifying along a
confluence band across portions of southern LA, where a 925-850 mb
moisture axis preceding an approaching low-level trough is in place.
A west-southwesterly 500 mb wind maxima is overspreading the region,
contributing to elongated but mainly straight hodographs (per the
latest HDC VAD) and corresponding 60+ kts of effective bulk shear
(most of which should be speed based). This shear, along with
diurnal heating contributing up to 500 J/kg MLCAPE, will favor some
organization of convective elements within the aforementioned
precipitation band. Transient supercell modes are possible. 30 kts
of southwesterly 850 mb flow is also approaching from the west, and
this may contribute to some additional curvature to the low-level
hodograph and subsequent increase in low-level shear. As such, a
damaging wind gust or tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon in
the evening. However, the overall severe threat should remain
isolated, and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29959290 30769119 30719039 30468989 30218975 29918973
            29908998 29709072 29689147 29719231 29959290 

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