SPC Dec 10, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms may affect portions of
east-central Alabama into west-central Georgia through this evening.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was to trim the western portion
of severe probabilities, where the convective line and related wind
shift has progressed eastward. Ahead of the line, latest radar data
has shown brief/transient circulations over southeast AL, where
low-level hodograph curvature is slightly more pronounced (beneath
the core of a mesoscale LLJ) amid a warm/moist air mass. Current
indications are that the greatest severe risk will be associated
with this activity (and any additional development) from
east-central AL into west-central GA through the remainder of the
afternoon and early evening.

..Weinman.. 12/10/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/

...AL/GA...
The subtropical jet extends across the Gulf Coast region today, with
several subtle shortwave troughs suggested in water vapor imagery
that will affect parts of FL/AL/GA.  Ample low-level moisture is
present across central/southern AL/GA with dewpoints in the
mid-upper 60s - yielding MUCAPE around 500 J/kg.  Several 12z CAM
solutions indicate a mesoscale low-level jet max that will intensify
ahead of the cluster of showers/thunderstorms over west-central AL. 
This will lead to enhanced low-level vertical shear and forcing,
providing  support for a few supercell/bowing storm structures and
the risk of  a tornado or two and damaging wind gusts.  Given these
trends, have opted to upgrade this corridor to SLGT.  Refer to MCD
#2256 for further short-term details.

...Carolinas...
Late tonight, the rapidly amplifying upper jet over the TN valley
will lead to an organizing band of showers and low-topped
thunderstorms along the cold front over SC/NC.  It still looks like
the main intensification of this line will occur after 12z, so will
not expand the MRGL risk farther east.  However, this area will
continue to be re-evaluated in later outlooks.

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