SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024