SPC Dec 11, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early
Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four
Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies
and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface
low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this
shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity
across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold
front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains.

Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to
mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold
front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by
early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to
the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively
warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in
significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection
will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector
extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger
vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is
some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail
across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall
severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities.

..Mosier.. 12/11/2024

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