SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Discussion... A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg. This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts. ..Grams.. 12/11/2024