SPC Dec 11, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

...Discussion...
A compact shortwave trough near the Four Corners Area should move
across the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains. The
attendant surface cyclone will be weak, tracking from the Raton Mesa
vicinity to eastern KS. Modifying moisture return from the western
Gulf will become sufficient for elevated convection by Friday Night
across parts of the south-central states. Moderate mid-level lapse
rates will support only weak buoyancy with MUCAPE below 1000 J/kg.
This setup suggests that nocturnal thunderstorms should be
non-severe. Still, deep-layer shear ahead of the shortwave trough
should be adequate for small hail in the deepest updrafts.

..Grams.. 12/11/2024

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