SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central/South-Central States... An upper cyclone and attendant trough will lift east/northeast from the central/southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Only a weak reflection of this upper system is expected at the surface, where a low over eastern KS during the morning hours will generally weaken as it lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F surface dewpoints into the TX coast and east TX and the Sabine Valley vicinity through evening. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this low-level warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough and weakening surface low from east TX/LA into the Lower and Mid-MS Valley. A strong storm or two may be possible across southeast TX into LA where deeper boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based destabilization will overlap with weak vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent will remain weak as large-scale ascent remains displaced to the north. Additionally, low and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Overall severe potential is expected to remain negligible, and thunderstorm activity across the region should diminish during the evening hours. ...Pacific Coast States... Persistent onshore flow is forecast through the evening hours as an upper trough located offshore the Pacific coast Saturday morning moves inland toward the Rockies by Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are expected, especially during the 12-18z time frame when large-scale ascent will be maximized amid steepening midlevel lapse rates. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will overspread portions of central CA during the morning to midday time period, resulting in some hodograph curvature. However, cool surface temperatures and very modest instability (generally less than 200 J/kg MLCAPE) will likely limit surface-based convection. ..Leitman.. 12/13/2024