SPC Dec 13, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on
Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will migrate east from the Rockies into the Plains
on Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low will track across the
northern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast
across much of the northern/central Plains through the day. The
front will continue southeast through the nighttime hours, becoming
positioned from near Lake Michigan southwestward toward the Red
River by Monday morning. 

Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F
dewpoints to spread north across east TX into southeast OK, and
eastward across AR/LA. While vertically veering wind profiles
typically would support some potential for organized convection,
thermodynamics are expected to remain rather poor due to low-level
inhibition and weak lapse rates. Furthermore, stronger height falls
are not expected across the region until late in the period, further
suppressing deep convective potential through much of the forecast
period. While isolated elevated convection is possible in the
low-level warm advection regime, severe potential appears limited.

..Leitman.. 12/13/2024

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