Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin on Sunday morning to the central Plains by Monday morning, amplifying early Monday morning. Lee troughing will persist through the period across the Plains which will strengthen the low-level jet and increase moisture advection into the Plains and Ozarks. Weak isentropic ascent could lead to isolated thunderstorm development from East Texas into southeast Oklahoma during the day Sunday. However, surface based instability will likely not develop until after 04Z as mid-level temperatures start to cool. During this late overnight period is also when ascent increases with the sharpening mid-level trough. Therefore, moderate instability amid a sheared environment with increasing ascent could lead to some severe weather potential across eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas between 06Z and 12Z Monday. However, a limited time window for severe late in the outlook period, and questions regarding storm mode and timing preclude a marginal risk at this time. ..Bentley.. 12/13/2024
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