SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...South-Central States... An upper trough over the Plains will shift east across the Midwest and into the Northeast on Monday. The bulk of stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will be focused across the Mid-MS and OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across the Midwest, while the southwest extent of the boundary drops more south/southeast across parts of the southern Plains and the Lower MS Valley. The front should extend from northern MS into central TX by early Tuesday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints over the eastern half of TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley. While this will aid in modest destabilization across portions of southern/central TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity, vertical shear is expected to be modest (less than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes) and large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north. As a result, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024