SPC Dec 14, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify and become negatively tilted on
Monday as it moves from the central Plains to the Northeast by 12Z
Tuesday. A surface low will move from northern Minnesota to northern
Ontario on Monday with a cold front extending from this surface low
to the Great Lakes and the southern Plains. This front will likely
become stationary from central Texas to northern Mississippi late in
the period. 

Continued southerly flow ahead of the surface low will bring low 60s
dewpoints as far north as the Missouri Bootheel Monday afternoon
with mid 60s dewpoints farther south near the ArkLaTex. An expansive
precipitation shield is likely across the eastern Great Lakes on
Monday afternoon and evening in response to a strengthening
low-level jet along and ahead of the surface front, however limited
moisture will keep instability subdued and lightning appears
unlikely with this activity. 

Modest instability may develop with the richer moisture from
southern Illinois to the southern Plains. However, forcing will be
weaker across this region and shear will be weak farther south
(ArkLaTex) where the greater instability will be present. The lack
of phase between the instability, shear, and forcing make severe
thunderstorms unlikely on Monday.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2024

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