SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Westerly flow across much of the CONUS will become more amplified as a shortwave trough deepens and develops east from the northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity on Tuesday. The southwest extent of the upper trough will lag, remaining over the Southern Rockies/Four Corners vicinity. Stronger mid/upper level southwesterly flow associated with the deepening trough will extend from OK/KS to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front from the Mid-South vicinity into central TX will stall or even retreat northward. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s and 60s dewpoints ahead of the front across southern TX toward the ArkLaTex. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm are possible in this warm-advection regime amid modest elevated instability. However, stronger height falls will remain displaced to the north, and large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the warm sector. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak vertical shear and poor low-level lapse rates. As such, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low. ..Leitman.. 12/15/2024