SPC Dec 15, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

Westerly flow across much of the CONUS will become more amplified as
a shortwave trough deepens and develops east from the
northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest vicinity on Tuesday.
The southwest extent of the upper trough will lag, remaining over
the Southern Rockies/Four Corners vicinity. Stronger mid/upper level
southwesterly flow associated with the deepening trough will extend
from OK/KS to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front from the
Mid-South vicinity into central TX will stall or even retreat
northward. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s and 60s
dewpoints ahead of the front across southern TX toward the ArkLaTex.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorm are possible in this
warm-advection regime amid modest elevated instability. However,
stronger height falls will remain displaced to the north, and
large-scale ascent will be nebulous across the warm sector. 
Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak vertical shear and
poor low-level lapse rates. As such, severe thunderstorm potential
is expected to be low.

..Leitman.. 12/15/2024

Read more