SPC Dec 16, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into
northeast/central Texas, as well as across the Florida Peninsula and
Georgia coast on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will migrate across the eastern half of the CONUS on
Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest across the
southeast U.S., ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending
from southern OH southwest to western TN and then central TX
Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to
be ongoing along the front at the beginning of the period. This
activity will likely be elevated and just to the cool side of the
surface front. Instability is expected to be very weak with
southeast extent into the TN and Lower MS Valley, and morning
thunderstorms will likely diminish in coverage as the front moves
southeast. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given limited
instability and modest vertical shear.

Additional thunderstorms are expected across the FL Peninsula and
perhaps the GA coast. Low-level easterly flow will continue to
maintain somewhat richer low-level moisture to the east of a surface
inverted trough and in a separate regime from the approaching upper
trough and surface front to the west. This will aid in modest
destabilization through peak heating. Weak vertical shear will limit
storm organization, and severe storms appear unlikely at this time.

..Leitman.. 12/16/2024

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