Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will limit thunderstorm potential on Day 4/Sun. Starting Day 5/Mon, a progressive upper level pattern is forecast, and a series of shortwave trough will migrate across the Plains to the Midwest. As this occurs, surface lee troughing will support south/southeasterly low-level flow across the southern Plains and the Gulf of Mexico. Modest boundary-layer moisture will being to return northward across TX toward OK by early next week, and eventually into the Lower MS Valley by mid to late in the week. Large spread remains regarding the timing and intensity of these features across the south-central U.S. However, thunderstorm potential will begin increasing starting Day 5/Monday across OK/TX, shifting east with time through Day 8/Thu. Some severe-thunderstorm potential could accompany this activity, but predictability is too low at this time to include outlook delineations at this time.