Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A more active southern-stream pattern should evolve next week, with several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier along with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. One such shortwave trough should influence increasing thunderstorm potential across east/southeast Texas on Tuesday/Day 5. Some severe risk could materialize, but it appears that overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature. An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be into the Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8 time frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the Southwest deserts. This could lead to some severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. However, there is some uncertainty regarding moisture/destabilization given the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15% outlook areas.